PAGCOR Forecasts Revenue Decline for Philippine Gaming Sector in 2026

PAGCOR Chairman and CEO Alejandro H. Tengco has outlined projections showing the Philippine gaming industry’s gross gaming revenues could fall by up to 19 percent in 2026, reaching between P320 billion and P350 billion compared with P396.14 billion recorded for 2025, and observers note the figures stem directly from current economic pressures and regulatory adjustments already visible in early data.

The announcement came in early June 2026, when Tengco presented the outlook during updates tied to first-quarter performance, highlighting how external factors and policy measures combine to shape the year ahead while the agency continues monitoring arrivals and spending patterns across licensed operators.

Details Behind the 2026 Projection

Industry data shows the expected contraction would mark a notable shift after recent growth periods, and Tengco attributed the bulk of the anticipated drop to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that reduce discretionary spending, particularly among lower-income groups who contribute significantly to both land-based and electronic gaming segments. Those tensions have already begun influencing travel and remittance flows that support local gaming activity, creating a ripple effect that operators track through monthly reports.

At the same time, tighter restrictions on electronic payments, including the de-linking of e-wallets from online gaming platforms, have produced measurable results in the first quarter, and the combination of these elements forms the core of the current forecast rather than any single isolated cause.

First-Quarter Performance and Electronic Gaming Trends

Figures for Q1 2026 reveal gross gaming revenues dropped 15.87 percent year-on-year to P87.6 billion, with electronic gaming experiencing a steeper 22.43 percent decline that directly reflects the impact of payment restrictions implemented earlier in the year. The electronic segment’s contraction stands out because it had previously driven much of the industry’s expansion, and the data indicates operators adjusted marketing and player acquisition strategies in response to reduced accessibility through digital wallets.

Land-based venues showed comparatively milder movements during the same period, yet the overall quarterly total still fell short of prior-year benchmarks, prompting PAGCOR to revise full-year expectations downward while maintaining close oversight of compliance and revenue collection across all license categories.

Offsetting Factors and Tourism Growth

Despite the downward pressure, rising tourist arrivals continue to serve as a counterbalance within the projections, and Tengco pointed to increasing visitor numbers as a channel that could partially mitigate losses in domestic discretionary spending. International arrivals bring additional foot traffic to integrated resorts and casino floors, supporting table games and slot revenues that remain less affected by e-wallet changes.

Operators have reported stronger occupancy rates at resort properties during the first half of 2026 compared with the same months in 2025, suggesting tourism recovery helps stabilize certain revenue streams even as electronic channels contract. The agency continues to track these arrivals alongside gaming taxes remitted monthly, allowing for ongoing adjustments to the overall outlook as new passenger data becomes available.

Regulatory Context and Industry Response

PAGCOR has maintained that the e-wallet restrictions aim to strengthen responsible gaming measures and reduce unauthorized transactions, while the resulting revenue impact now factors into planning for both regulators and operators. Licensed companies have responded by diversifying payment options and enhancing loyalty programs aimed at tourists and higher-value domestic players who face fewer restrictions.

Those who monitor the sector note that the agency’s role includes balancing revenue targets with regulatory compliance, and the June 2026 statements reflect an effort to provide transparent guidance on expected collections that influence government budgets tied to gaming proceeds.

Conclusion

The forecast shared by PAGCOR’s leadership places the 2026 revenue range between P320 billion and P350 billion after accounting for geopolitical influences and payment restrictions already visible in Q1 results, yet the same outlook incorporates continued growth in tourist arrivals as a moderating element. Data released through official channels, including updates available at PAGCOR, will continue to inform whether actual collections align with or deviate from these projections as the year progresses, and operators along with regulators alike will adjust strategies based on monthly performance indicators.